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Research Papers

Risk Assessment in Bridge Construction Projects Using Fault Tree and Event Tree Analysis Methods Based on Fuzzy Logic

[+] Author and Article Information
Gholamreza Abdollahzadeh

Associate Professor Faculty of Civil Engineering, Babol University of Technology, Babol 47148-71167, Iran e-mail: abdollahzadeh@nit.ac.ir

Sima Rastgoo

Department of Civil Engineering, Tabari University of Babol, Babol 47148-71167, Iran e-mail: sima.rastgoo@yahoo.com

Manuscript received September 1, 2014; final manuscript received May 9, 2015; published online July 1, 2015. Assoc. Editor: Alba Sofi.

ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Part B 1(3), 031006 (Jul 01, 2015) (12 pages) Paper No: RISK-14-1046; doi: 10.1115/1.4030779 History: Received September 01, 2014; Accepted June 03, 2015; Online July 01, 2015

In this paper, interruption risk in construction activities of bridge projects is assessed in order to identify the main causes of its occurrence and also to determine the potential outcomes resulted from the risk occurrence. To do this, fault tree and event tree analysis (ETA) methods are applied. As the application of the traditional approach of these two methods is difficult in many cases due to limited access to information, fuzzy arithmetic can be considered as a useful tool. In this research, first, fault tree structure is created according to consequences resulted from the Delphi method. Then, the probability of risk occurrence is calculated by applying fault tree analysis (FTA) based on fuzzy logic. By establishing the structure of fault tree related to the failure risk of mitigation strategies, the main causes relating to failure of strategies are identified. The structure of the event tree is created using the obtained results; moreover, the expected monetary value (EMV) of risk event is computed. Finally, to validate the results obtained, a model is created by Monte Carlo simulation and then the results obtained by applying the two methods are compared. The EMV of the risk event evaluated in this paper is determined to be 9.93% of the project baseline cost.

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References

Figures

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Fig. 1

Sample of a fault tree structure

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Fig. 2

Structure of event tree established by two pivotal events

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Fig. 3

Membership functions for occurrence probability

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Fig. 4

Triangle distribution function [25]

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Fig. 5

Structure of fault tree for interruption risk during construction activities of bridge projects

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Fig. 6

Structures of fault tree for failure of mitigations

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Fig. 7

Structure of event tree

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Fig. 8

Cumulative distribution of the EMV

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