Research Papers

Seismic Reliability Assessment of a Concrete Water Tank Based on the Bayesian Updating of the Finite Element Model

[+] Author and Article Information
Francesca Marsili

Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering,
University of Pisa,
Largo Lucio Lazzarino 2,
Pisa 56126, Italy;
TU Braunschweig,
Beethovenstraße 52,
Braunschweig 38106, Germany
e-mail: francesca.marsili@unifi.it

Pietro Croce

Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering,
University of Pisa,
Largo Lucio Lazzarino 2,
Pisa 56126, Italy
e-mail: p.croce@ing.unipi.it

Noemi Friedman

Institute of Scientific Computing,
TU Braunschweig,
Mühlenpfordtstrasse 23,
Braunschweig D-38106, Germany
e-mail: n.friedman@tu-bs.de

Paolo Formichi

Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering,
University of Pisa,
Largo Lucio Lazzarino 2,
Pisa 56126, Italy
e-mail: p.formichi@ing.unipi.it

Filippo Landi

Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering,
University of Pisa,
Largo Lucio Lazzarino 2,
Pisa 56126, Italy;
Institute of Scientific Computing,
TU Braunschweig,
Mühlenpfordtstrasse 23,
Braunschweig D-38106, Germany
e-mail: filippo.landi@unifi.it

Manuscript received September 30, 2016; final manuscript received December 26, 2016; published online March 1, 2017. Assoc. Editor: Konstantin Zuev.

ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Part B 3(2), 021004 (Mar 01, 2017) (14 pages) Paper No: RISK-16-1131; doi: 10.1115/1.4035737 History: Received September 30, 2016; Revised December 26, 2016

Failure or malfunction of complex engineered networks involves relevant social and economic aspects, so that their maintenance is of primary importance. In assessing the reliability of such networks, it should be duly considered that they are a whole made of different parts, and that some of these individual parts or structures are often crucial to assure the proper operation of the entire network. Moreover, each of these structures can be considered a complex system by itself: structural reliability theory should be thus combined with advanced numerical analysis tools in order to obtain realistic estimates of the probability of failure. Accurate estimations are especially required in seismic zones, aiming to efficiently plan future interventions. This paper presents a method for the reliability assessment of a critical element of engineered networks. The method is discussed with special reference to a relevant case study: a concrete water tank, which is a key component of a water supply system. Special attention is devoted to the reliability assessment of the tank under seismic loads, based on a structural identification approach. The calibration of the finite element model (FEM) of the structure is carried out on probabilistic basis, applying the Bayes theorem and response surface methods. The proposed approach allows to significantly speed up the structural identification process, leading to sounder estimate of the input parameters. Finally, the seismic fragility curves of the structure are developed according to the relevant limit states, demonstrating that information regarding the global structural behavior and local checks can be effectively combined in structural reliability assessments.

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Fig. 1

General methodology for reliability assessment of existing structures based on response surface methods and Bayesian updating

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Fig. 2

The water tank structure considered in the case study

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Fig. 5

Position of transducers and accelerometers along the structure

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Fig. 3

The FEM of the structure

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Fig. 4

The loading device

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Fig. 6

Response surfaces for the displacement δ1 recorder by the first sensor (a) and for the frequency ν (b, c, d)

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Fig. 7

Sample points of the posterior pdfs, as obtained applying MCMC

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Fig. 8

Seismic fragility curve (empty tank)

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Fig. 9

Seismic fragility curve (full tank)



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