Research Papers

Simulation and Experiment of Mass Evacuation to a Tsunami Evacuation Tower

[+] Author and Article Information
Takao Kakizaki

Department of Mechanical Engineering,
Nihon University,
Nakagawara 1, Tokusada, Tamura,
Koriyama 963-8642, Fukushima, Japan
e-mail: kakizaki.takao@nihon-u.ac.jp

Jiro Urii

CAS Research,
44-4-105 Shimo,
Fussa City 197-0023, Tokyo, Japan
e-mail: Jiro.URII@cas.fussa.tokyo.jp

Mitsuru Endo

Department of Mechanical Engineering,
Nihon University,
Nakagawara 1, Tokusada, Tamura,
Koriyama 963-8642, Fukushima, Japan
e-mail: m_endo@mech.ce.nihon-u.ac.jp

Manuscript received January 28, 2016; final manuscript received April 21, 2017; published online June 27, 2017. Assoc. Editor: James Lambert.

ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Part B 3(4), 041007 (Jun 27, 2017) (10 pages) Paper No: RISK-16-1016; doi: 10.1115/1.4036662 History: Received January 28, 2016; Revised April 21, 2017

A three-dimensional (3D) mass evacuation simulation using precise kinematic digital human (KDH) models and an experimental study are discussed. The flooding associated with the large tsunami caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake on Mar. 11, 2011, was responsible for more than 90% of the disaster casualties. Unfortunately, it is expected that other huge tsunamis could occur in Japan coastal areas if an earthquake with magnitude greater than eight occurs along the Nankai Trough. Therefore, recent disaster prevention plans should include evacuation to higher buildings, elevated ground, and constructed tsunami evacuation towers. In this study, evacuation simulations with 500 KDHs were conducted. The simulations consisted of several subgroups of KDHs. It is shown that the possible evacuation path of each group should be carefully determined to minimize the evacuation time. Several properties such as evacuee motion characteristics of KDHs, number of evacuees, exit gates, and number of injured persons were carefully considered in the simulations. Evacuee motion was also experimentally investigated by using a multistoried building to replicate the structure of an actual tsunami evacuation tower that could accommodate approximately 120 evacuees. The experimental results suggest that an appropriately divided group population could effectively reduce the overall group evacuation time. The results also suggest that fatigue due to walking during evacuation adversely affects the total evacuation time, especially in the ascent of stairways. The experimental data can be used to obtain more accurate simulations of mass evacuation.

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Fig. 1

Expected tsunami time arrival after a Nankai Trough earthquake [1]

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Fig. 3

Occupation-inspection space moving with evacuee

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Fig. 4

Three-dimensional mass simulation model of tsunami evacuation

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Fig. 2

Mass evacuation drill to a multilevel car parking garage in Banda ache, Indonesia (photo by M. Anshar. Permission from Serambi Indonesia and Graha Budaya Indonesia (GBI-Tokyo))

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Fig. 9

Example of saddleback-carry with eight followers

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Fig. 10

Scenes of the small group evacuation experiment

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Fig. 7

The tsunami evacuation tower at Suzukawa Port Park

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Fig. 8

View from the tower roof and location map of tsunami evacuation towers in Fuji City

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Fig. 5

Simulation results (initial conditions): (a) 30 s, (b) 120 s, (c) 180 s, and (d) 339 s

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Fig. 6

Simulation results (modified parameter case): (a) 30 s, (b) 120 s, (c) 180 s, and (d) 284 s

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Fig. 12

Schematic of evacuation patterns in the experiment

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Fig. 13

Scenes of the mass evacuation experiment

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Fig. 11

Bird's-eye view of the experimental site (Google map)

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Fig. 19

Joint coordinate frames in the KDH model

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Fig. 15

Effect of patient transportation on evacuation time

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Fig. 18

KDH model and joint arrangements

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Fig. 14

Effect of mass branching on evacuation time

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Fig. 16

Number of transporter changes and locations

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Fig. 17

Number of transporter changes and order of completion

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Fig. 20

Multi-agent system for the evacuation simulation



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