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Research Papers

Bayesian Network Learning for Data-Driven Design

[+] Author and Article Information
Zhen Hu

Department of Industrial and Manufacturing
Systems Engineering,
University of Michigan-Dearborn,
2340 Heinz Prechter Engineering
Complex (HPEC),
Dearborn, MI 48128
e-mail: zhennhu@umich.edu

Sankaran Mahadevan

Professor
Department of Civil and
Environmental Engineering,
Vanderbilt University,
272 Jacobs Hall VU, PMB 351831,
Nashville, TN 37235
e-mail: sankaran.mahadevan@vanderbilt.edu

1Corresponding author.

Manuscript received May 16, 2017; final manuscript received January 15, 2018; published online April 18, 2018. Assoc. Editor: Faisal Khan.

ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Part B 4(4), 041002 (Apr 18, 2018) (12 pages) Paper No: RISK-17-1063; doi: 10.1115/1.4039149 History: Received May 16, 2017; Revised January 15, 2018

Bayesian networks (BNs) are being studied in recent years for system diagnosis, reliability analysis, and design of complex engineered systems. In several practical applications, BNs need to be learned from available data before being used for design or other purposes. Current BN learning algorithms are mainly developed for networks with only discrete variables. Engineering design problems often consist of both discrete and continuous variables. This paper develops a framework to handle continuous variables in BN learning by integrating learning algorithms of discrete BNs with Gaussian mixture models (GMMs). We first make the topology learning more robust by optimizing the number of Gaussian components in the univariate GMMs currently available in the literature. Based on the BN topology learning, a new multivariate Gaussian mixture (MGM) strategy is developed to improve the accuracy of conditional probability learning in the BN. A method is proposed to address this difficulty of MGM modeling with data of mixed discrete and continuous variables by mapping the data for discrete variables into data for a standard normal variable. The proposed framework is capable of learning BNs without discretizing the continuous variables or making assumptions about their conditional probability densities (CPDs). The applications of the learned BN to uncertainty quantification and model calibration are also investigated. The results of a mathematical example and an engineering application example demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

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Figures

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Fig. 1

Concept of the bnfinder method

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Fig. 2

Overview of the proposed method

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Fig. 3

Concept of the mix-nets method

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Fig. 4

A continuous node with discrete and continuous parents

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Fig. 5

Results comparison of learned CPDs, given x1 = 14 (Note: Gray background implies mix-nets failed to model the CPD)

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Fig. 6

Bayesian network of Example 1

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Fig. 7

Learned BN topology from bnfinder with different numbers of samples

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Fig. 8

Learned BN topology from OUGM with different numbers of samples

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Fig. 9

Learned CPDs of C3 with different values of parent nodes: (a) D3 = 0 and (b) D3 = 1

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Fig. 10

Model calibration results based on different methods: (a) five observations and (b) ten observations

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Fig. 11

A beam with possible crack and support damage: (a) a beam with crack and (b) exact BN

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Fig. 12

Learned BN from different methods with 1000–5000 samples

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Fig. 13

Learned CPD of F under given values of its parents

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Fig. 14

Model calibration results using different methods: (a) four observations and (b) eight observations

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