Research Papers

Reliability Modeling for Gear Door Lock System With Dependent Failures Based on Copula

[+] Author and Article Information
Linjie Shen

School of Aeronautics,
Northwestern Polytechnical University,
Xi'an 710072, Shaanxi, China
e-mail: 473109870@qq.com

Yugang Zhang

School of Aeronautics,
Northwestern Polytechnical University,
Xi'an 710072, Shaanxi, China
e-mail: zhangyugang@nwpu.edu.cn

Xinchen Zhuang

School of Aeronautics,
Northwestern Polytechnical University,
Xi'an 710072, Shaanxi, China
e-mail: zhuangxinchen@126.com

Bozhi Guo

School of Aeronautics,
Northwestern Polytechnical University,
Xi'an 710072, Shaanxi, China
e-mail: 1090519629@qq.com

Manuscript received February 18, 2017; final manuscript received April 2, 2018; published online April 30, 2018. Assoc. Editor: Faisal Khan.

ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Part B 4(4), 041003 (Apr 30, 2018) (8 pages) Paper No: RISK-17-1029; doi: 10.1115/1.4039941 History: Received February 18, 2017; Revised April 02, 2018

The gear door lock system (GDLS) is a hydraulic and mechatronic system with high degree of complexity and uncertainty, making the performance assessment of the system especially intractable. We develop copula models to estimate the reliability of GDLS with dependent failure modes. Based on the working principle of the GDLS, kinematic and dynamic model with imperfect joints is built in which Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and kernel smoothing density are utilized to obtain the marginal failure probabilities. Then, copula models are utilized to describe the dependence between the two function failure modes. Furthermore, to be more accurate, mixed copula models are developed. The squared Euclidean distance is adopted to estimate the parameters of the above reliability models. Finally, the Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to evaluate different reliability models.

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Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 1

Gear door lock mechanism

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 2

Revolute joint clearance

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 3

Probability density plots of the three copula functions

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 4

Dualistic frequency histogram of the two failure modes

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 5

Scatter plots of measured and simulated data

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 6

The results of two-mixed copula models: (a) scatter plots of measured data and simulated data, (b) scatter plots of the value of two-mixed copula and the joint empirical value, and (c) PDF of binary two-mixed copula

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 7

The results of the three-mixed copula model: (a) scatter plots of measured data and simulated data, (b) scatter plots of the value of three-mixed copula and the joint empirical value, and (c) PDF of three-mixed copula




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