This paper addresses the statistical uncertainty in long-term fatigue damage in offshore structures due to the short-term simulation length used in time domain analysis of stresses. The paper focuses on steel risers applications. A new simulation-based estimator for the variance of the short-term fatigue damage is presented. The proposed estimator is based on a variation of the original nonparametric bootstrap. It works with blocks of data instead of discrete values, in order to better account for the autocorrelation of the stress cycles in the stress time series. This versatile estimator can be applied in time-domain fatigue analyses to assess the variance of the fatigue damage using a single stress time series and does not require any previous assumptions on the stochastic stress process.
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June 2018
Research-Article
Statistical Uncertainty Analysis in Time-Domain Fatigue Assessment of Steel Risers
Rodrigo C. da Costa,
Rodrigo C. da Costa
Laboratory of Analysis and Reliability of
Offshore Structures,
Department of Civil Engineering,
Federal University of Rio de
Janeiro COPPE/UFRJ,
Av. Pedro Calmon, s/n,
Rio de Janeiro RJ 21941-596, Brazil
e-mail: rccosta.ec@gmail.com
Offshore Structures,
Department of Civil Engineering,
Federal University of Rio de
Janeiro COPPE/UFRJ,
Av. Pedro Calmon, s/n,
Rio de Janeiro RJ 21941-596, Brazil
e-mail: rccosta.ec@gmail.com
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Luis. V. S. Sagrilo
Luis. V. S. Sagrilo
Professor
Laboratory of Analysis and Reliability of
Offshore Structures,
Department of Civil Engineering,
Federal University of Rio de
Janeiro COPPE/UFRJ,
Rio de Janeiro RJ 21941-596, Brazil
e-mail: sagrilo@coc.ufrj.br
Laboratory of Analysis and Reliability of
Offshore Structures,
Department of Civil Engineering,
Federal University of Rio de
Janeiro COPPE/UFRJ,
Av. Pedro Calmon, s/n
,Rio de Janeiro RJ 21941-596, Brazil
e-mail: sagrilo@coc.ufrj.br
Search for other works by this author on:
Rodrigo C. da Costa
Laboratory of Analysis and Reliability of
Offshore Structures,
Department of Civil Engineering,
Federal University of Rio de
Janeiro COPPE/UFRJ,
Av. Pedro Calmon, s/n,
Rio de Janeiro RJ 21941-596, Brazil
e-mail: rccosta.ec@gmail.com
Offshore Structures,
Department of Civil Engineering,
Federal University of Rio de
Janeiro COPPE/UFRJ,
Av. Pedro Calmon, s/n,
Rio de Janeiro RJ 21941-596, Brazil
e-mail: rccosta.ec@gmail.com
Luis. V. S. Sagrilo
Professor
Laboratory of Analysis and Reliability of
Offshore Structures,
Department of Civil Engineering,
Federal University of Rio de
Janeiro COPPE/UFRJ,
Rio de Janeiro RJ 21941-596, Brazil
e-mail: sagrilo@coc.ufrj.br
Laboratory of Analysis and Reliability of
Offshore Structures,
Department of Civil Engineering,
Federal University of Rio de
Janeiro COPPE/UFRJ,
Av. Pedro Calmon, s/n
,Rio de Janeiro RJ 21941-596, Brazil
e-mail: sagrilo@coc.ufrj.br
1Corresponding author.
Contributed by the Ocean, Offshore, and Arctic Engineering Division of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF OFFSHORE MECHANICS AND ARCTIC ENGINEERING. Manuscript received June 6, 2016; final manuscript received November 16, 2017; published online January 2, 2018. Editor: Lance Manuel.
J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng. Jun 2018, 140(3): 031701 (9 pages)
Published Online: January 2, 2018
Article history
Received:
June 6, 2016
Revised:
November 16, 2017
Citation
da Costa, R. C., and Sagrilo, L. V. S. (January 2, 2018). "Statistical Uncertainty Analysis in Time-Domain Fatigue Assessment of Steel Risers." ASME. J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng. June 2018; 140(3): 031701. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4038583
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